Thursday, July 30, 2020

On the Distinct Likelihood that These Social-Distancing Policies Have Resulted In More Elderly Deaths than Would Have Been the Case Had We Simply Implemented a Partial Quarantine of the Vulnerable Populations - https://thefederalist.com/2020/04/03/why-severe-social-distancing-might-actually-result-in-more-coronavirus-deaths/

Yeah, this is very elementary. As the article adroitly points out, the more successful that a strategy is at temporarily suppressing an infectious disease, the larger the epidemic is likely to be in the long run (in the absence of a vaccination) due to a lesser buildup of population immunity and the fact that unless you put the elderly into a totally antiseptic environment, a great deal of them will still get sick over time. What we clearly should have done is quarantine the vulnerable and let this thing pass through the healthy population so that we could have developed this herd immunity......because short of that unicorn vaccination, it's our only real option at this point. 

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