Sunday, May 11, 2014

On the Climate Models

The good news (for the alarmists, I'm saying) - not ALL of the climate models were wrong. The bad news - 95% of them were; 88 out of the 90 overestimating the satellite temperatures and 86 out of the 90 overestimating the surface temperatures (some of them being way, WAY, off). Wow, huh? That's not even close enough for government work, for Christ.
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5 comments:

Jerry Critter said...

I'm not sure you appreciate the difficulties of prediction something as complex at the global climate and in particular predicting what amounts to short term variations in something which has historically been a very long term effect.

May 12, 2014 at 9:59 AM
BB-Idaho said...

One wonders if the models are deficient, the 'chaos' element of
climate affects prediction, the raw data is imperfect or atmospheric physics is not fully developed. Not having the source of each curve, we can only note that each succeeding point ascends and the debate goes on .

May 12, 2014 at 12:40 PM
Will "take no prisoners" Hart said...

To the contrary, Jerry, it it me who understands the complexity of climate change and that it is actually the result of a myriad of different forcings; oceanic oscillations, solar cycles/sunspots/magnetism, cosmic rays, cloud cover, plate tectonics, planetary perturbations, lunar cycles, underwater and above-water volcanic activity (and inactivity), bacteria, and, yes, even some human activity, and it is them (the James Hansens and Ben Santers of the world) who've attempted to simplify the thing by focusing simply on human-induced CO2.

May 12, 2014 at 3:20 PM
Will "take no prisoners" Hart said...

BB, this is from a BBC interview with Phil Jones. EVEN PHIL JONES DOESN'T THINK THAT THE DEBATE IS OVER. Earth to John Oliver - "Q - When scientists say 'the debate on climate change is over', what exactly do they mean - and what don't they mean?
A - It would be supposition on my behalf to know whether all scientists who say the debate is over are saying that for the same reason. I don't believe the vast majority of climate scientists think this. This is not my view. There is still much that needs to be undertaken to reduce uncertainties, not just for the future, but for the instrumental (and especially the palaeoclimatic) past as well."

May 12, 2014 at 3:29 PM
Will "take no prisoners" Hart said...

And of course climate change it happening. Climates have been doing nothing BUT THAT for billions of years and what is happening now is nothing even remotely abnormal.

May 12, 2014 at 3:31 PM

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