Monday, May 12, 2014
Miscellaneous 177
1) The vast percentage of the CO2 that humans have deposited into the atmosphere has occurred predominantly over the prior three decades and so that huge spike in temperatures that occurred from 1910 to 1940 had to have been due to natural sources (oceanic oscillations, solar activity and magnetism, cosmic rays, volcanic inactivity, etc.) - period.............2) According to a 2001 article from "Nature", proxy data strongly suggests an almost perfect correlation between C14 (a proxy for solar activity) and O18 (a proxy for air temperature). These results are highly consistent with previous studies and it is now almost universally accepted that solar forcings are a major determinant of climate on earth (not to mention the other planets in the solar system).............3) According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, climate is defined as weather averaged over a 30 time period. Using this as our operational definition, the last 150 years represents only 5 data points, hardly enough to make any sort of sweeping claim.............4) According to climate reconstructions by Oregon State geologist, Alan Mix, the earth's temperatures 3-6 million years ago were approximately 2-3 degrees warmer than they are today and there was no biodiversity crisis. Zero.............5) The earth's temperature has risen by approximately seven tenths of a degree Celsius over the past 150 years. And what exactly has been the result of this trend? Try, it has unquestionably been the most prosperous, innovative, and life-sustaining period in all of human history and that if it wasn't for this period in human history we'd all probably still be living in squalor.....Spoiled, we're so spoiled!
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6 comments:
Come on, Will. I hate to be your fact checker, but a 30 year average over 150 years results in about 120 points, not 5. Point 1 - year 1 to 30, point 2 - year 2 to 31, point 3 - year 3 to 32, etc.
And, are you really trying to imply that "the most prosperous, innovative, and life-sustaining period in all of human history" is a result of the "approximately seven tenths of a degree Celsius over the past 150 years" when you ask "what exactly has been the result of this trend?".
If you want people to take you seriously, you have got to get the simple stuff correct.
That's not how they do it, Jerry. They take the 30 year averages consecutively and not concurrently. I mean, years 1-30 and 2-31 are essentially the same data and that basically tells you nothing.............And it's an unimpeachable fact that all throughout history the human species has done much, MUCH, better during warm periods than during the cold ones; the Vikings in Greenland and the building of the great cathedrals in Europe during the Medieval Warm Period, the flourishing of Rome during the Roman Warm Period, huge population growths during the two Holocene Warming Optimums (they're called, "optimums", for a good reason), etc........And my more basic point was that, in spite of all of this catastrophic warming, we're all done pretty darn well and that maybe we just need to cool it for a while.
I would be very surprised if they actually did it consecutively. Do you have a link?
The 30 year average points between years 1-30 and years 31-60 are show how the average changes from one group of data to the other. After all, it is simply a moving average, a standard way of analyzing large data sets.
A climate is a 30 year DISTINCTIVE time frame, just like the '80s and '90s are distinctive decades. Comparing years 1-30 and 2-31 tells you nothing. A link? I've heard numerous geologists (Robert carter, Ian Clark, etc.) refer to data points along these lines.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s4hpxAZum_U - Somewhere in this lecture Carter refers to the last 150 years as 5 data points.
And I suppose that you could make as many data points as you wanted; one a month even (I mean, seriously, what's so special about 365 days?). But the point here is to get useful information and the larger point that evidently got obscured is the fact that 150 years (whether you use 5 data points or 360 or 10,950 - as in one a day) in the context of a six billion year-old planet is literally a blip and certainly inefficient to tank the world economy on.
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