Thursday, September 4, 2008

Benjamin Harrison, Anybody?

I hate to bring this up, folks, but I think that there's at least a slight chance (15-20% - I'm guessing) that we might have a repeat of 2000 - you know, where one guy wins the popular vote but the other guy gets elected via the electoral college. The reason that I say this is that, while Obama (it being a Democratic year and all) has a solid chance to get a plurality of overall votes, the electoral map still appears to be problematic for him............................................I mean, think about it. The last northern liberal (and even he wasn't all that liberal by today's standards) to win a Presidential election (a general election, I'm saying) was J.F.K. - 48 years ago!! Now it certainly could be argued that this is a special year, 1) because the Republicans have mucked it up (one could argue) so much and 2) the fact that Obama's race could in fact help him in certain (previously thought of as unattainable) states; Virginia and Georgia, especially. But, I don't know, I still think it's going to be a donnybrook/white-knuckler. Be prepared for an all-nighter, folks.

7 comments:

clif said...

Will you need to READ this blog;

fivethirtyeight.com

you might realize your fears are a little unfounded.

Will "take no prisoners" Hart said...

It looked interesting. I need more time to digest it, though. Rutherford B. Hayes and J.Q. Adams are the other 2 examples. I think Bush was the only one to get re-elected, interestingly.

clif said...

Will do you realize that the last republican elected to the White House that wasn't from either California or Texas was Dwight David Eisenhower?

That means 1956 Was the last time a republican candidate for president who won wasn't from one of those two states, 52 years ago.

The results of four states will point out the way the election is going rather early.

Ohio, Virginia North Carolina and Florida are the most populous states which are even close.

If Obama wins one he has a very good chance of winning, if Obama wins two or more he wins it is really that simple, the only way the election is close is if McCain wins all four.

I predict Obama will win at least two of them.

If Obama wins Georgia it is a landslide election for change.

Utah Savage said...

Keep your fingers crossed, and it wouldn't hurt to donate a pittance to the candidate of your choice.

Jolly Roger said...

The comparison is bogus.

Only in the eyes of the RNC is Obama particularly liberal; the truth is, he's a moderate by most reasonable standards of measure.

Will "take no prisoners" Hart said...

I think the public considers him liberal. Of course, the fact that he's been on the national scene so short a period of time, I don't think anybody really knows for sure. One pulication had him as the most liberal of the 100 Senators (that could be unfair). Me, I think he's a pragmatist who most people, if he is elected, will find acceptable.

Will "take no prisoners" Hart said...

Please, keep in mind, I said a slight (15-20%, a guess) possiblility that this scenario could unfold. I didn't say that I necessarily expected it. P.S. Even if he isn't liberal (which could be a hard sell for you with certain people), he is in fact a northern Democrat. They haven't always fared well nationally. Though, like I said, this could be an anomalous year.