Monday, April 8, 2013

On Climate Sensitivity and Feedbacks; Theory and Reality

The IPCC's theory of anthropogenic global warming hinges on one key element; a positive feedback loop. The essence of it is that even a small increase in atmospheric CO2 will interact with the preexisting water vapor and clouds and cause an amplification of the normal one degree increase per doubling of CO2 by a factor of anywhere from 2-5 (the theory is based upon the plausible notion that increases in CO2 will cause the ocean water to evaporate and create an even more powerful greenhouse effect). It was a "putting your all your eggs in one basket" approach to climatology that eventually prompted the now infamous computer models of the '90s.........................................................................................So, how well has the data from the past twenty or so years supported this theory of anthropogenic global warming via a CO2-water vapor positive feedback loop? "Not very" would be putting it quite mildly. The fact of the matter here is that global temperatures (as determined by satellites) over the past 16 years are actually down from the 1997-1998 peak of El Nino (itself a naturally occurring climate phenomena) and the trajectory doesn't appear to be changing. This, despite the fact that global CO2 emissions have continued to rise and rise markedly................................................................................................Oh, and if that isn't sufficient enough proof for you folks that the feedback isn't a positive one but a negative one, these satellites have also been measuring the amount of radiation that's been escaping back into space, and GUESS WHAT? The amount of radiation that's been escaping hasn't been decreasing. It's been INCREASING. It seems, folks, that when you evaporate more water, you aren't just increasing the greenhouse effect. You're also increasing cloud cover and what does cloud cover do? Yeah, that's right, it blocks the sun from hitting the land/lower atmosphere and the temperatures moderate accordingly....Wow. I guess that it's back to the drawing board YET AGAIN.

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